危机中的俄罗斯：一个超级能源大国的终结

Russia in Crisis: The End of an Energy Superpower

叶利钦时期俄罗斯的掠夺式资本主义导致了后苏联时期俄罗斯经济转型的灾难性后果。普京当政后对这一政策进行了大幅修正,转而奉行传统俄罗斯式的反市场经济模式。强力部门人士进入权力核心,国家控制取代市场运营成为主要战略。重组能源部门并借此巩固新的政治权力基础,进而恢复俄罗斯超级大国地位,构成了普京当局的优先政策。俄罗斯经济在普京作为俄罗斯总统任内的强势复苏似乎标志着俄构建能源超级大国的战略进展顺利,但金融危机的冲击暴露了现存俄罗斯制度的危险性。俄已经错过了调整经济结构的宝贵机会,克里姆林宫将能源同时作为财富增长和外交杠杆的时代已经结束。在这一背景下,梅普共治体制的改革以及经济政策的调整也许将成为可能。但历史的惯性和重负经常使俄在经历混乱失序后回归原点。俄罗斯市场经济的转型必将是一个漫长的过程。

Russia＇s predatory capitalism during Boris Yeltsin’s period has led to disastrous consequences of Russia＇s economic transformation after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After Putin came into power, the policy has been substantially amended in favor of pursuing traditional Russian-style anti-market economic model. Elites in powerful sector entered the core of power, state replaced market as a major strategy. Restructuring energy sector and consolidating new political power base, and thus restoring Russia’s status as great power has constituted Putin Administration’s priority policy. The strong recovery of Russian economy during President Putin＇s term of office seems to mark the successful progress of Russia’s building a strategic energy superpower, but the financial crisis has exposed dangers of existing Russian system. Russia has missed valuable opportunities to adjust its economic structure, while the era has gone when Kremlin took energy as means for both wealth growth and diplomatic leverage. In this context, it is possible for the reform of the co-governance of Putin and Medvedev and the adjustment of economic policies as well. However, the historical inertia and burden tend to lead Russia back to the beginning after confusion and disorder. The transition of Russia’s market economy will doom to be a long process.