农地私有化、市场环境与俄罗斯农业发展

Land Privatization,Market Condition and Russian Agriculture Development

1991年俄罗斯私有化改革之后,农业进入了负增长期。其深层次原因是市场环境不利于农业发展,非均衡的通货膨胀使农产品价格相对偏低,农业生产成本上升,收益却不断下降。在这种情况下,理性的农业生产主体只能选择减少生产,俄罗斯不得不依靠进口农产品来满足国内消费需求。1998年金融危机改变了农业发展的市场环境,卢布汇率的大幅度贬值抑制了进口农产品对俄罗斯农业的冲击,国内市场环境也开始向有利于农业发展的方向转变,俄罗斯农业从此走上了复苏之路。基于这种分析,2008年金融危机能够继续改变农业贸易条件和卢布汇率,因而这次金融危机仍然有利于俄罗斯农业的发展。

Russian agriculture went through a period of decline since its privatization reform in 1991. It basically results from awful market condition, relatively low agricultural product prices caused by unbalanced inflation, rising product costs, and falling product returns. As a result, rational agricultural actors has no alternative but to cut down production and import farm products to meet domestic consumption demands. However, the financial crisis in 1998 improves Russian agricultural market condition, and the largely devaluated exchange rates of Ruble restrain impacts of imported agricultural products upon Russian agriculture. Besides, Russian domestic market condition is also beneficial for its agriculture and led Russian agriculture to a road of renaissance. Based on this analysis, the financial crisis in 2008 still can improve Russian agricultural trade condition and exchange rates of Ruble, which will accelerate Russian agriculture development.