论创新发展战略预见

Strategy foresight of innovation and development

随着技术预见兴起,产业预见及长远决策等与创新发展相关的各类分散式及组合式预见活动逐渐受到各国重视,相关预见活动的系统性整合趋势日益明显。论文首先分析了开展创新发展综合性预见活动的必要性和可能性,提出"将创新发展相关预见活动整合为战略预见",进而探讨了战略预见的基本内涵和理念,然后从社会发展"三类结构关系"角度构建了战略预见的基本框架,从"价值链"和"价值创造"角度探讨了战略预见的基本方法,最后是对综合性预见活动新近发展的概览及展望。

With the flourish of technology foresight,various types of distributed and combined foresight activities related to innovation and development,such as industry foresight,long-term decision making,etc.,have increasingly attracted many countries＇ attention.The systematic integration trend of these activities is also more and more clear.This paper first analyses the necessity and possibility of conducting such comprehensive foresight activities,pointing out ＂integrating the relative foresight activities into strategy foresight of innovation and development＂.Afterwards it explores the basic concepts and ideas of strategy foresight and constructs a basic framework from the ＂triple structural relations＂ perspective towards social development,and investigates the basic approaches of strategy foresight from the ＂value chain＂ and ＂value creation＂ perspectives.Finally the paper offers an overview and prospect of the development of comprehensive foresight.