中国东部经济增长的驱动因素及其差异性分析

The Driving Factors and Difference Analysis of Economic Growth in Eastern China

运用扩展的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,分析了区域经济增长的驱动因素,并基于东部11省市的面板数据,采用变系数的SUR统计方法进行研究。结果显示:①能源消费对经济增长的作用显著,但存在区域差异;②资本投入对经济增长存在滞后影响,经济增长不仅受资本投入总量的影响也受到投入结构的影响;③以能源强度表征的技术进步是经济增长的主导因素,认为能源技术进步不仅有利于减少能源消耗,而且还可以促进经济的增长,能源密集型向资本密集型和技术密集型的转变,是东部地区可持续发展的必然趋势。

The extended Cobb-Douglas production function was utilized to analyze the driving factors of regional economic growth and the SUR statistical methods with variable coefficient is adopted for study based on the panel data of 11 provinces in eastern China. The results show that, the role of energy consumption on economic growth is significant, but there are regional differences; capital investment has lagged effect on economic growth both due to its scale and structure ; technological progress featured with energy intensity is the dominant factor of economic growth. Therefore, the paper holds that the energy technological progress is not beneficial to the reduction of energy consumption, but also to economic growth and the transformation from energy intensity to capital and technology intensities and thus is an inevitable trend for eastern China＇s sustainable development.