全球大城市与低碳:从概念规划到综合模型

GLOBAL MEGACITIES AND LOW CARBON:FROM CONCEPT PLANNING TO INTEGRATED MODELLING

下个世纪到来之前,越南的河内市预计将成为一个拥有4000万人口的城市密集体,一个全球化的巨型城市。"巨型城市"的定义是人口超过千万的城市。预计到2015年,亚洲(全世界大部分城市化进程都发生在这里)可能出现多达60个巨型城市,将有共计6亿人定居。这一数字将在此后的几十年内急剧增加,到本世纪末将有超过20亿人生活在巨型城市之中。低碳性能是新一轮城市发展可持续性规划的基本方面。可持续发展总体规划包括4个方面,即能源使用的经营、与建筑相关的隐含能源、能源供应基础设施以及其他基础设施(如交通、废物、水、污水等)。这些方面需要在初步的概念设计阶段就给予充分的考虑,对于巨型城市而言,不全面的规划将会对碳排放和能源消耗造成深远的影响,因此更需要对以上各方面进行充分考虑。本文介绍了如何利用城市规模的模型来评估低碳规划和设计的这些方面,该模型也被称为整个城市及建设用地层面的能源与环境预测模型(EEP-Urban)。

Before the end of this century,Hanoi,Vietnam is projected to grow to a population of 40 million people all clustered within a dense urban conglomerate,a global Megacity.＂ Megacities＂ are defined as urban areas with more than ten million inhabitants.By 2015 it is estimated that Asia （where much of the worldwide process of urbanization is taking place） may contain as many as 60 Megacities housing more than 600 million people in total.This number will dramatically increase over the next decades with more than 2 billion people living in Megacities by the end of this century.Low carbon performance is a fundamental aspect of the sustainable planning of a new urban development.Sustainable master planning has four components,namely operating energy use,embodied energy associated with buildings,energy supply infrastructures,and other infrastructures such as transport,waste,water,sewage,etc.These aspects need to be understood to inform the concept design at its earliest stage,especially if designing to cater for the needs of global megacities where ramifications of poorly integrated planning could result in profound and long-lasting impacts on carbon and energy intensity.This paper describes how these aspects of low carbon planning and design can be assessed using urban scale modelling,namely the Energy and Environmental Prediction model （EEP-Urban）,at a whole city and building plot level.