基于双标准的水库防洪预报调度规则设计方法

Design the flood control forecast operation regulation based on double standards

目前水库实施预报调度规则设计的基本条件就是洪水预报方案精度要达到规范规定发布的标准,属单一标准法,尚未考虑水库设计洪水、调节特性及其上下游防洪能力的安全约束,缺乏水库安全调度的可靠度标准。为此,本文将水库可承受预报误差域的可靠度作为另一基本条件引入到水库防洪预报调度规则设计中,提出"预报方案的规范评定等级和水库可承受误差域的可靠度"双标准设计水库预报调度规则的新方法。相应地给出洪水预报误差域和水库防洪预报调度可承受误差域的定义及其数值求解方法;可承受误差域的可靠度计算方法及标准值确定原则。文中以桓仁水库为例,论述双标准设计预报调度规则的必要性、方法步骤、效益及其安全性。

The forecast accuracy of any reservoir flood-control forecast regulation must satisfy the stipulations in＂Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forecasting SL 250-2000＂,If only this standard is adopted,then important factors could be missed such as the reservoir design flood,the regulating characteristic,and the security constraints imposed by flood control capacities upstream and downstream.Moreover,the reliability standard of safe flood control operation is not considered by such a method.This paper takes the reliability of acceptable error domain as a second standard and puts forward the definitions and numerical schemes of flood forecast error domain and acceptable error domain,with a case study of Huanren reservoir regulation.Double standard regulation generally enhances the safety of regulation scheme and the efficiency of flood water use.