农民工市民化对扩大内需和经济增长的影响

The Effect of Citizenization of Rural Migrant Workers on the Domestic Demand and Economic Growth

本文分析我国现行城市化模式制约经济增长的作用机制和渠道,建立区分农村居民、农民工和城市居民三类居民的理论框架,证明推动农民工市民化会通过缩小居民收入差距、提高城市规模和增加人力资本积累等渠道,推动我国经济在更高水平上实现均衡增长。在此基础上用CGE模型模拟了这些作用机制及影响,结果显示:每年多市民化1000万人口(700万农民工加上其抚养人口)可使经济增长速度提高约1个百分点;而且农民工市民化将促进居民消费和固定资产投资增长,降低经济增长对出口的依赖程度;可以提高服务业比重,优化经济结构,因此加快农民工市民化步伐是促进我国发展方式转变的重要途径。

Based on a theory model which distinguish the native city labors, the rural migrant workers and the farmers, this paper analyzes how the current pattern of urbanization is harmful to the economic growth. The model shows that citizenization of rural migrant workers will increase the scale of the city, narrow the income disparity between urban and rural labor, and accelera~ the accumulation of the human capital. As a result, it is helpful for attaining higher level of economic growth. Then we simulate the effect by using a CGE model. The simulation results show that citizenization of 10 million migrant workers can increase the GDP growth rate at about 1 per cent. It also shows that eitizenization of migrant workers can promote consumption and investment, which will expand domestic demand significantly and decrease the degree of dependence on foreign trade. In addition, citizenization can increase the share of service sector and optimize the economic structure.