我国城市住房市场泡沫水平的度量

The Measurement of the Bubble of Urban Housing Market in China

本文考察租售比、空置率、投资购房与自住购房之比、房地产贷款占比和房地产业利润率等学术界和业界通常用来度量住房市场泡沫水平的指标的适用性,认为由于我国客观条件的制约,这些指标都不适合作为判断我国城市住房市场泡沫水平的直接、准确指标,直接、准确指标是房价收入比。依据我国房价收入比合理上限的模型,并基于我国当前城镇居民平均消费倾向、按揭贷款利率水平、按揭贷款占主导地位的期限和首付款比例区间,推导出当前我国城市居民理论上能承受的房价收入比的合理上限约在4.38—6.78倍之间。近年来我国城市住房市场总体存在泡沫、部分城市泡沫较大,部分一线城市泡沫惊人、蕴含巨大金融风险。在此基础上,本文提出了政策建议。

In this paper we examine the applicability of some indexes such as housing-price-to-rental ratio, vacancy rate that always used by academic circle to measure the bubble of housing market. We demonstrate that these indexes are all unsuitable to be the direct and accurate index to measure the bubble level of China＇ s urban housing market because of the objective conditions of the country, and that the most suitable index for measuring the bubble level of housing market under the current condition is the housing-price-to-income ratio. We construct a model to measure the reasonable limit of hosing-price-to-income ratio,then based on China＇s current mortgage loan＇ s rate level and period and down payment ratio, deriving that the country＇ s urban resident＇ s sustainable housing-price-to-income ratio limit is no more than 7. Then using statistics data, we figure out current hosing -price-to- income ratio of our country＇s major cities,and draw the conclusion that in recent years the country＇s urban housing market exists bubble overall, especially at present urban housing market bubble is very significant. Part of the First-tier city＇s bubble is so amazing and contains huge financial risk. Based on above analysis, we put forward some policy suggestions.