金融体系发展、金融结构深化与经济增长——基于63个国家样本的面板协整分析

Financial System Development,Financial Structure Deepening and Economic Growth——A Panel Co-integration Analysis Based on the Data of 63 Countries

本文利用25个0ECD国家与38个转型国家两个样本组1990～2008年的数据进行实证对比分析,研究发现:无论是OECD国家还是发展中国家都支持银行信贷与经济增长负向相关,银行对私人部门信贷与股票市场发展可以显著促进经济增长;发展中国家发展对金融资本的依赖程度高于发达国家,金融结构深化存在"溢出效应"。但过分采取信贷政策与财政政策扩张促进经济增长的途径具有不可持续性;在银行信贷市场化的同时政府必须加强金融监管,其中不仅仅包括银行信贷错配的问题,还需提防可能出现的导致对生产领域资本形成产生挤出效应的"过度金融"现象。在我国资本存量不甚丰富、市场化效率仍存在进一步改善的经济环境下,利用扩大银行信贷规模而获取规模报酬递增优势的做法并不现实,政府必须注意银行信贷行政配置与市场化手段之间的动态平衡关系。

Though compared empirical analysis using the data from 25 OECD countries and 38 developing countries during the period 1990- 2008, we find： bank credit and economic development have a negative relative; bank credit to private sector and stock market development can promote the economic growth ; The degree of reliance on finance eapital of the developing country is higher than that of developed countries;The financial structure deepens exist notable spillover effeet. Too much credit policy and expansionary fiscal policy to promote economic growth can not be sustainable ;With the bank credit market liberalization, government must strengthen financial supervision to ensure the health of the financial system, not only including the problem of mismatch of bank credit, but also guarding against the possibility leading to the over financial phenomenon, which can extrude the capital formation of production field.