中国对外贸易结构与产业结构:“镜像”与“原像”的背离

China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure:Deviation of mirror image from original image

一个国家的产业结构实际上是其生产要素禀赋及其利用方式的综合反映,对外贸易结构只不过是产业结构在空间范围上的扩展,两者是同源的,是一种"原像"与"镜像"的耦合关系。对外贸易之所以能够带动产业结构的升级,是因为对外贸易活动的规模经济效应有利于积累技术进步,从而完成产业结构的优化和对外贸易结构的升级。但中国的对外贸易却没有能够有效带动产业结构的升级,中国大量"两头在外"的加工贸易使中国对外贸易结构呈现超前发展的虚幻性,它并不与中国的产业结构存在必然的内部联系,即对外贸易结构的"镜像"并不反映产业结构的"原像"。

A country＇ s industrial structure is actually the comprehensive reflection of its production factor endowments and the way of their use. The structure of foreign trade is just the expansion of industrial structure in spatial scope. The two structure＇s are homologous. They have the coupling relationship of original image and mirror image. The reasons why foreign trade leads to the upgrading of industrial structure lie in that the effects of scale economy of foroign trade activities favor the accumulation of tech- nological progress so as to optimize industrial structure and upgrade foreign trade structure. But China＇ s foreign trade has not been able to effectively promote the upgrading of industrial structure. China＇ s large number of processing trade activities with ＂both ends at the outside＂ bring about the illusion of leading development of China＇ s foreign trade structure, which has no inevitable internal links with China＇ s industrial structure, i.e., the ＂mirror image＂of the foreign trade structure does not reflect its ＂original image＂.