船舶定线制事故相对多发航段的判别

Identification of Accident-prone Route Segment in Ship Routing schemes

船舶定线制在我国的成功实践,充分体现了其在规范船舶交通流,减少航行事故等方面的重要作用。但由于通航环境复杂或设计方案不够完善等原因,船舶定线制航道上可能存在一些危险因素集中的区域,造成这些航段上的事故相对多发。根据船舶定线制航道上的事故数据,应用动态步长法和累计频率曲线法,结合当量事故概念,进行事故相对多发航段的判别。船舶定线制事故相对多发航段的科学判别,将有助于进一步分析事故多发原因,提高船舶定线制有效性。同时,因船舶定线制航线一般与传统航路一致,本方法也可用于船舶定线制设计阶段的事故多发航段分析,为优化定线制的设计方案提供参考。

The successful practice in China has reflected the effectiveness of ship routing in standardizing ship routes and ensuring safety,etc.But due to complicated navigation environments or design scheme defect,there may exist some risky areas on designated routes and bring in accident-prone route segments.Based on the accident data on designated routes by ship routing,the accident-prone route segment is identified with dynamic step filtration method and cumulative frequency curve method with concept of equivelant accident conception.Scientific identification of accident-prone route segment will help further analyze the reasons of frequent accident and improve the safety level of ship routing scheme. Also,this method can provide a reference for optimization of ship routing schemes.