信贷支持、政府支出与产业转型的关联机制研究

Credit Support Government Spending and the Relevant Mechanism of Industrial Upgrading

信贷配置是否能够有效地促进产业结构转型是理解中国经济增长模式的重要维度。本文通过梳理银行信贷和政府支出影响产业转型的主要渠道,采用分位数回归的估计方法,应用中国1952～2007年的数据构建相关指标,实证分析信贷因素、政府支出变量影响各产业工业产出及促进产业转型的关联机制和实际效果。结论表明,总量信贷是造成产出波动的关键因素,而信贷流向不同产业的结构仍存在不合理之处;信贷支持是产业转型的重要因素,但是政府的影响也是必要而显著的。

Whether credit allocation could spur the upgrade of industries or not is one of the most important questions to understand China＇s economic growth model.After summarizing transmission mechanisms through which bank credit and government expenditures influence industry transformation using the estimation method of quantile regression applying data from 1952 to 2007 to construct the relevant indicators in China this paper does some empirical analysis to test how credit factors and government expenditure variables influence gross output of different industries and the correlation mechanism and actual result in promoting upgrade of industries.The conclusions of this paper imply that aggregate loan has been key variable which determines the volatility of gross output of different industries the bank credit flow to the structure of different industries is still unreasonable credit support is an important factor in the upgrade of industry structure but the government＇s influence is also necessary and significant.