基于前瞻性泰勒规则对中国通货膨胀目标值估计的实证研究

The Empirical Analysis on China's Inflation Target Value Based on the Forward-looking Taylor Rule

基于状态空间形式的前瞻性泰勒规则,采用卡尔曼滤波估计方法对中国1992～2008年动态通货膨胀目标值进行估计,结果显示中国的通货膨胀预期目标值较实际水平平滑,1998年之后的通货膨胀目标估计值能够较准确反映中国这一时期真实通货膨胀率预期值;中国历年通货膨胀和产出水平的变化随着利率的变化而顺向变动。结论提示今后中国货币政策可采取把灵活而又规范的通货膨胀目标制与泰勒规则结合的操作框架。

Based on the forward-looking Taylor rules in state-space form making use of the Kalman filter method this paper estimates China＇s dynamics inflation targeting value from 1992 to 2008.The result shows that China＇s prospective inflation targeting value is smoother than real inflation value after 1998 the estimated inflation targeting value can accurately reflect true the expected inflation rate the changes of China＇s inflation rate over the years and level of output are positively correlated with the changes of interest rates.This conclusion provides a viable route for future operation of monetary policy in China in the future China＇s monetary policy can adopt operation flexible and standardized framework in which inflation target and forward-looking Taylor rule are combined.