对中国各省资本存量的估计及典型性事实:1978～2008

Estimate of the Capital Stock of Provinces in China and the Typical Fact from 1978 to 2008

本文通过对基年资本存量、当年投资数据、固定资产价格指数和折旧率进行了认真的处理和计算,并利用永续盘存法对改革开放以来各省资本存量进行了较为准确的估计。进一步回归分析得出,资本存量增长与经济增长密切相关,而资本产出比率则与经济增长负相关。这与经济理论及国内有关学者的研究结论一致。

Based on serious-minded processing and computing capital stock of the base year investment data for the year price index of fixed assets and rate of depreciation by using the perpetual inventory method this paper carries out relatively accurate estimate of the capital stock of every province since the reform and opening up.After further regression analysis the result shows that the growth of capital stock is closely related with economic growth but the capital-output ratio is negatively correlated with economic growth.The conclusion is consistent with economic theory and other researcher＇s findings.The result also demonstrates that our estimation is accurate and credible which are good foundations for further economic research.