全球经济“绿色复苏”与“无就业增长”下的战略性财政政策

On Strategic Fiscal Policy in the Context of Global Economic‘Green Recovery’and‘Under-employment Growth’

2009年的世界经济总体呈现前降后升的态势。"绿色经济"开始成为推动经济增长的新驱动力量,美国"新经济模式"的萌芽值得关注。增长背后的失业率上升仍是世界各国面临的棘手问题,但"无就业增长"的内在逻辑和潜在机遇却已逐步显化。我国经济率先进入了复苏轨道,积极财政政策也已取得明显成效。本文以全球金融危机形势发展分析为基础,提出了以供给管理为主体,融选择性支持、自动稳定安排和相机抉择于一体的"战略性财政政策"组织建议和运行模拟方案,进而形成了以"绿色经济"为基础的发展思路和政策安排。

The world economy shows the tendency of decreasing first and ascending later in 2009.‘Green economy’ has become a new driving force of economic growth and the appearance of ‘new economic model’ in the USA has been considered particularly noteworthy. The rising unemployment rate behind economic growth is still a difficult problem faced by many countries around the globe. On the other hand, the internal logic of ‘unemployment growth’ and its potential opportunities has gradually shown up. The Chinese economy has taken the lead into economic recovery. Meanwhile, the proactive fiscal policy has achieved significant results. Based on an analysis of latest development of global financial crisis, this paper proposes the concept and simulated project of ‘strategic fiscal policy’ with supply management as the main, and constituted by selective support, automatic stabilizers and discretionary arrangements. Furthermore, the paper also puts forward the idea and policy arrangements based on ‘green economy’.