基于GIS的三峡库区生态环境综合评价:Ⅲ.1951年以来的气温变化

Integrated assessment of eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Area based on GIS and DEM Ⅲ. temperature change assessment since 1951

根据三峡库区及周边地区的地面气象数据和1∶25万的地形图,利用线性趋势模型和"回归分析+残差修正"插值法,定量评估了三峡库区近54 a来气温的年和四季变化规律。结果表明:自1951来,整个库区气温变化的最大特点是夏季平均最高气温显著降低(-0.21℃/10a)、冬季平均最低温显著增加(0.20℃/10a)、夏季和冬季的日较差及年平均日较差显著降低,而年平均气温、年平均最低温、年平均最高温、春秋两季的平均气温、平均最高(低)温、冬季平均气温和冬季平均最高温的变化不显著。同时,库区的气温变化存在区域差异:库区西部的年、夏季和冬季平均日较差、夏季最高温等的降幅较大,库区东部的冬季最低温的增温幅度大于西部。

Based on the ground meteorological data during the period from 1951 to 2004 and relief map in the Three Gorges Reservoir and its neighbor area,the climate change characters of recent 54a were studied.The results show： the biggest characters of temperature change in summer is that the mean maximum temperature of summer decreases very significantly with the trend of-0.21 ℃/10a;the summer and winter diurnal temperature range（DTR）,and the mean annual diurnal temperature had decreased significantly,but the mean minimum temperature in winter had increased significantly with the trend of 0.2 ℃/10a;mean annual,mean annual minimum and maximum temperature,mean spring and autumn temperature and their mean maximum（minimum） temperature,mean winter temperature and its mean maximum temperature didn＇t change significantly.Meanwhile,the change of temperature in the reservoir area had regional differences： in the west of reserioir area,the mean maximum temperature of summer,the annual,summer and winter mean DTR had decreased largely,the minimum temperature of winter in the east of reservoir area had increased larger than that in the west.