年极值水位的灰色马尔科夫预报模型

Grey Markovian model for predicting annual maximum stage

本文将灰色系统与马尔科夫链理论相结合，提出了一种高精度的预报模型———灰色马尔科夫模型．计算表明，年极值水位的预报值很好地吻合了实测结果．此外，本文还得到了一种精度提高的求解ＧＭ（１，１）的新方法．

This paper combines Grey system with Markov theory to present a high precision model Grey Markovian model, which is used to forecast extreme water level. Examples show that results of the annual maximum stage calculation are found to be in good agreement with the measured data. In addition, a new method to solve GM(1,1) is also obtained in this paper. The precision is also improved.