小水电水工建筑物风险评价方法研究

Research on Risk Evaluation of the Hydraulic Structure of Small Hydropower Stations

小水电水工建筑物的风险评价是一个很少涉及的课题,且对小水电安全更新改造工作具有积极的指导意义。结合小水电自身的一些特点,在葡萄牙人提出的综合风险指数法的基础之上,作出了一定的改进,综合考虑影响小水电安全的各类因素,包括工程结构、运行管理、失事后果及所处环境,建立了小水电水工建筑物风险评价模型。为提高模型计算结果的可靠性,利用传递熵的理论对专家们的意见进行处理。并举例证明了该方法的实用性与科学性。

The risk evaluation of the hydraulic structure of small hydropower stations is a subject seldom covered,It has a positive guiding significance for the security renovation of small hydropower stations.In this paper,the authors made some improvements based on the comprehensive risk index method proposed by Portugese,Various factors affecting the safety of small hydropower statipons,including engineering structures,operation and management,failure consequences and surroundings are considered comprehensively.The model of small hydropower hydraulic structure risk assessment is established.To improve the reliability of the results of model calculation,experts＇ views are dealt with by the transfer entropy theory.Finally,it gives an example to confirm this practical and scientific method.