吉林省粮食单产影响因素分析

Analysis on Factors Influencing Grain Yield Per Hectare in Jilin Province

吉林省是我国重要的商品粮基地,研究其单产的变化对确保吉林省粮食供给具有重要意义。以1984～2007年主要农业生产条件作为自变量,采用多元线性回归分析其对单产的影响。计量结果表明,灌溉比例、每公顷化肥施用量、农机动力、成灾比例等4个因素对粮食单产水平的解释力达87.9%。其中灌溉比例、化肥施用量、减少成灾比例对单产的提高有积极的影响,而增加机械动力减少了粮食产量,对此,我们需要有相应的对策。

Jilin province is one of the most important commodity grain base in China,so researches on the change of grain yield per hectare in Jilin province is of significance for ensuring grain supply.Using data of production conditions for agriculture from 1984 to 2007 as independent variables,their impacts on grain yield per hectare were analyzed in the paper using linear regression.The results showed that grain yield per hectare could be explained on 87.9% degree by irrigated area,consumption of chemical fertilizers,power of agricultural machinery,area affected by disasters,etc.Among them,irrigated area,consumption of chemical fertilizers,decreasing area affected by disasters have positive function to grain yield;however,grain output decreased with increasing power of agricultural machinery,so we need adopt related countermeasures.