初值信息在气候预测中的作用

Role of Initial Information in Climate Prediction

应用胞映射全局分析方法，研究初值信息在气候预测中的作用。针对人们认识气候的实际过程，分别提出４种初始条件，研究一个最大简化的大气模式做逐日级别预报和量值预报以及月平均级别预报和量值预报的能力。结果表明，初值信息掌握得越多，预报误差就越小，预报的相对准确率就越高。

The role of initial information in climate prediction is studied in this paper by using the global analysis method,cell-to-cell mapping Corresponding with the actual procedure of recognizing the climate,there are four kinds of initial conditions in climate prediction Using these four kinds of initial conditions,the forecast capability of hierarchy prediction and value prediction in a most simplified atmospheric model is studied in this paper The results indicate that the more initial information is grasped,the less the prediction errors are caused,and then the higher prediction accuracy the model will have