前兆群体非均匀度异常与地震短期预报

INHOMOGENEOUS DEGREE ANOMALY OF PRECURSOR GROUP AND SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

通过对滇西地震预报实验场和腾冲－龙陵地震区常用前兆群体非均匀度进行系统计算和分析研究，结果表明前兆群体非均匀度异常是小概率事件，其异常时间提前量平均为51天，在二个震区13．5年的研究时段中无虚报，仅漏过2次M≥5．0地震；前兆群体非均匀度异常比单项前兆异常含有较多的近源短临信息，可能发展成为一个新的短临预报方法。

The systematical calculation and analytical research of inhomogeneous degree (ID ) in common precursor group have been carried out in WYEPTS (Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Test Site) and Tengchong-Longling seismic areas. It is found that ID anomaly of precursor group is an event of small probability. The average value of anomaly time before earthquake occurrence is about 51 days. There is not a false alarm but only two events failed to predict within 13. 5 year in both seismic areas. The ID anomaly precursor group contains more short term and impending information near the source than the single precursor. It may develop into a new method of short term earthquake prediction.