外商直接投资与天津出口贸易的互动关系——基于脉冲响应函数法的实证分析

The Relationship Between FDI and Export in Tianjin——An Empirical Analysis Based on Impulse Response Function

本文利用天津1980-2007年的年度统计数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法分析了出口贸易与外商直接投资之间的关系,并利用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解法进一步分析了两者间的动态关系。研究结果表明,天津的出口贸易与外商直接投资、贸易伙伴国的经济增长和进口贸易之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,外商直接投资、贸易伙伴国的经济增长和进口贸易都是出口贸易变动的原因。从动态角度看,在短期内,天津出口贸易对外商直接投资冲击的反应短期较为明显,而贸易伙伴国经济增长与进口贸易对出口贸易的影响在短期并不显著;从长期来看,FDI对出口贸易具有明显的替代效应,出口贸易增长主要依赖于进口贸易,而贸易伙伴国经济增长对出口贸易的影响作用十分有限。

Based on the statistics of Tianjin from 1980 to 2007,this paper analyzes the relationships between Tianjin＇s export trade and FDI by co-integration test and Granger causality test. And this paper uses the generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition to measure the interactive relationship. The results show as follows：there is a co-integration relationship between Tianjin＇s export trade and the three factors such as FDI,trading partners＇ GDP and Tianjin＇s import trade,the major factors determining Tianjin＇s export are FDI,import trade and trading partners＇ GDP. This paper also finds that in the short term the response of Tianjin＇s export to FDI innovation shock is more obvious than to Tianjin＇s import and its trading partners＇ GDP; in the long term there is a substitution relationship between FDI and Tianjin＇s export,Tianjin＇s export relies more on Tianjin＇s import,and the impact of Tianjin＇s trading partners＇ GDP to Tianjin＇s export growth is little in the long term.