居民收入增长对公共支出的需求变动分析——基于中国1978～2006年数据的实证研究

Changes in The Demand for Public Expenditure with Income Growth——An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Data from 1978 to 2006

由于不同收入群体的公共产品偏好不同,因此,随着居民收入的增长,公众对于公共产品的需求会有所改变,由此引致的财政支出规模变化应当是"民生财政"建立过程中需要重点考虑的因素。本文试图研究中国改革开放以来居民收入增长对财政支出规模的影响,主要从两个层面展开:首先,在理论层面,将财政支出分为不同性质的三类,并以此为基础分析居民收入与财政支出规模二者之间的逻辑关系;接着,对1978～2008年间中国的经验数据进行了实证研究,用协整检验和ARIMA模型等计量工具,实证分析了居民收入增长对中国公共支出结构变动的影响。研究结果表明:长期看来,随着居民收入增长,基础设施需求以及国防安全的需求趋于稳定;在短期中,居民收入的增长最能引起社会文教支出的扩张,其次为国防支出和行政管理支出,对经济建设支出的影响最弱。

As the preference for public goods is different among people with different income levels,thus,with the growth of the residents＇ income,the public demand for the public goods grows with chance accordingly. This kind of change will lead to the change of the size of fiscal expenditure,which is one of the main factors that should be considered during the construction of a fiscal expenditure pattern oriented by people＇s livelihood. This paper tries to analyze the impact of the residents＇ income on the size of fiscal expenditure since the reform and openness of China in two aspects：firstly,this paper divides the fiscal expenditure into three kinds with different characteristics,and analyzes the logic relations between the fiscal expenditure and the residents＇ income; secondly,based on Chinese data from 1978 to 2006,this paper analysis on changes in the demand for public expenditure with income growth through co-integration test and ARIMA models. The results show that：as income grows,the needs of public facilities and national security become stable in the long term; in the short term,it can lead to the expansion of cultural and education expenditures most easily,followed by national defense and administrative expenditures,and finally is economic construction expenditure.