总需求、国际贸易与我国省际生产率变化——基于省际面板数据的研究

Aggregate Demand,International Trade and China's Productivity Change——A Study Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data

全要素生产率的提高是促进经济持续增长的重要原因,对生产率的研究,主要是从供给方面展开的,本文试图从需求角度研究全要素生产率变动的原因。理论上看,总需求通过影响技术创新、技术选择、规模经济效益和要素的使用效率等途径引起生产率的变化,国际贸易则通过促进分工深化、产生技术溢出等促进生产率的提高。然后,本文采用数据包络分析方法测算了中国省际全要素生产率变化,并将其分解为技术效率的变化和技术进步。结果发现中国改革开放以来全要素生产率增长主要是技术进步的结果,技术效率的作用很小。在测算和分解的基础上,利用省际面板数据,就总需求和国际贸易对生产率增长的影响作了实证分析,发现最终消费和资本形成对技术进步和全要素生产率的提高作用显著,出口对生产率增长的作用不显著,进口显著地促进了省际全要素生产率增长和技术进步。

The improvement of Total factor productivity is of great importance to maintain the sustainable economic growth. The research on productivity is mainly developed from aggregate supply component. This paper tries to investigate the compact of aggregate demand components on the change of Total factor productivity from. In theory,the aggregate demand can lead to the total factor productivity change through technological innovation,technology choice,economies of scale and efficiency in the use of the factors. The international trade can deepen the division of labor and result in technology spillovers,thus leading to productivity change. Then,this paper measures the inter -provincial total factor productivity changes and decomposes the total factor productivity into technological progress and technical efficiency change by using the DEA method. We find that the total factor productivity growth during reform and opening-up period is mainly due to the technological progress other than technical efficiency change. On the base of measurement decomposition,we investigate the influence of aggregate demand on the total factor productivity growth by using the inter-provincial panel data. The result manifests that the growth rate of final consumption gross capital formation have significant correlation with productivity growth but exports of goods and services is of no importance for total factor productivity change and technological progress. However,import was significant for total factor productivity change and technological progress.