基于混沌可靠性理论的海底管道稳定性研究

Research on Stability of Submarine Pipeline Based on Chaos Reliability Theory

海底管道运输是目前世界上最重要的运输方式之一,但是海底管道检查维护、日常管理很不方便,一旦出现事故,维修非常困难,因此对海底管道进行失稳分析是完全有必要的。随着结构可靠性理论的发展和在实际生产中运用的日益成熟,国外的海底管道规范已经开始采用可靠性设计。文中采用混沌搜索可靠性理论对海底管道静态稳定性进行了有效的分析,并结合串联系统的可靠度理论对管道进行整体可靠度分析,最后结合算例验证了此方法的实用程度。分析结果表明,混沌搜索可靠性计算方法是可行有效的。

Nowadays submarine pipeline transportation is one of the important modes. However, checking and maintaining pipeline is very discommodious. Once they are destroyed, it is difficult to repair them. Thus, it is necessary to analyze stability of pipeline on the seabed. With the development and the application of the construction reliability theory, foreign design criterions of submarine pipelines have already adopted the reliability theory as design criterion. The chaos-search reliability theory is used to analyze the static state stability of the subsea pipelines effectively and the integral reliability of pipelines is analyzed based on series system theory. Finally, an example is given to show its feasibility. The results prove that the chaos-search reliability method is useful.