基于引力模型的中日韩物流合作潜力及趋势预测

Potential and trend forecast on China-Japan-Korea logistics co-operation based on gravity model

为对21世纪更具发展潜力的中日韩物流合作进行深入系统的理论分析,引用引力(Gravity)模型,构建中日韩3国物流合作的经济效果和影响模型,分析中日韩3国的贸易效果成因和所可能发生的各种影响,通过建立贸易量的趋势模型对中日韩3国的物流合作进行预测.根据采集的中国、日本、韩国、美国、德国和马来西亚等国家2005年的贸易相关数据进行的分析表明,中日韩3国物流合作的影响模型具备可操作性.

In order to make deep systematic theoretical analysis on China-Japan-Korea logistics co-operation which has more potential in the 21 st century, the economic effect model of China-Japan-Ko- rea logistics co-operation is built by using gravity model. The trade effect causes and possible various influences of China, Japan and Korea are analyzed; the China-Japan-Korea logistics co-operation based on the establishment of trend models on trade volume is predicted. According to the analysis of trade-related data on China, Japan, Korea, United States, Germany, Malaysia and other countries in 2005, the models of China-Japan-Korea logistics co-operation is of operability.