利用含水率模型和水驱特征曲线预测油田开发指标

OILFIELD DEVELOPMENT INDEXES PREDICTION BASED ON WATER CUT MODEL AND CHARACTERISTIC CURVE OF WATER FLOODING

如何进行油田开发指标预测和合理制定油田规划方案一直是石油界重点研究的问题。首次提出了用含水率预测模型和水驱曲线联解的方法，进行水驱开发油田不同开发时间的含水率、累计产油量、年产油量、年产水量和年产液量等开发指标的预测工作，为油田开发指标预测开辟了一条新的途径。详细给出了含水率预测模型的建立过程、参数的求解方法及其与水驱特征曲线联解进行开发指标预测的原理和具体过程。通过对我国和俄罗斯油田的实际应用表明，该方法能够得到较为合理和准确的预测结果。

It is always an important issue in petroleum industry for how to predict the development indexes and formulate reasonable development program of oilfield. The solution to combine water cut prediction model with water drive curves is firstly presented in this paper to predict the development indexes, such as water cut, cumulative production, yearly oil production, water production and liquid production. This is new method for development indexes prediction of oilfields. The process of set up the water cut prediction model, how to get the model parameters, and the fundamentals and detailed process of combining the model with water drive curves are presented detailed in the paper. It has applied to some oil fields in Russia and China, and the application results indicate that reasonable prediction results can be obtained with this method.