基于风险的城市埋地燃气管道安全评价模型及应用

Safety evaluation model and application for the urban buried gas pipeline based on risk

城市埋地燃气管道一旦失效会产生泄漏,甚至引发火灾爆炸等事故,造成人员伤亡和财产损失等严重后果,影响社会稳定,因此其安全运行十分重要。由于城市地下环境的复杂性,使得埋地燃气管道失效的因素多种多样,且具有模糊性;由于城市地面状况各异,所以构成失效后果的因素也具有不确定性。文章以某市在役燃气管道为例,使用模糊数学语言表达了埋地燃气管道的失效可能性和失效后果,采用模糊综合评价模型对燃气管道的失效可能性和失效后果进行了评价,并以美国石油协会(API)风险矩阵表征了埋地燃气管道的风险等级,得到不同管道单元的风险级别和管道单元数,根据不同的风险等级采取不同的策略或措施,完善管道的完整性管理,降低管道的使用风险,确保城市燃气管网的正常安全运行。

With the increasing popularization of the urban buried gas pipeline,the accidents are occurred usually.Once the pipeline failed in operation,it can produce leakage accident,as the fire and explosion and so on,and the consequence involves security of resident life and property loss,and affects the social stability,therefore the safe operation of urban buried gas pipeline is extremely important.The factors effecting failure of pipeline are complicated and varied,and most of them have getting fuzzy because of complicated underground environment in city,meanwhile,the factors caused failure consequence are uncertain because of various states on ground.Taking risk study on buried gas pipeline in service in a city as an example,the failure possibility and failure consequence of buried gas pipeline were expressed and evaluated with fuzzy mathematical language and fuzzy comprehensive assessment model,and the risk grade of buried gas pipeline was illustrated with risk matrix according to API,and the risk grades of various pipe element of pipeline was obtained.Some measures were adopted according to the different risk grades to perfect integrality management of pipeline,to decrease the operation risk of pipeline,and to ensure operation safely of the urban buried gas pipeline.