中美贸易收支的人民币汇率弹性及政策启示

A Lesson from the Flexibility of RMB Exchange Rate in Revenue and Expenditure of Sino-U.S. Trade and the Adopted Policy

金融危机之后,中美贸易顺差成为美国贸易保护主义的主要借口,人民币升值的压力日益增加。此背景下,准确测度中美贸易收支的人民币汇率弹性,关系"后危机时代"中国对外贸易政策以及汇率政策的选择。实证分析表明,中国对美国出口的人民币汇率富有弹性,而对美国进口与人民币汇率不相关。因此,对中国政府来说,应该顶住外部压力,尽可能保持人民币汇率的稳定,促进贸易、就业和经济增长;对美国来说,人民币汇率不是其贸易逆差的根源,人民币升值的结果只能产生贸易转移效应,并不能缓解其逆差状况,过度和偏激地施压人民币升值实非明智之举。

After the financial crisis,the Sino-U.S.trade surplus has become the main excuse for American protectionism and the pressure on the appreciation of RMB.Correct measurement of the flexibility of RMB exchange rate in the revenue and expenditure of Sino-U.S.trade is crucial for China′s foreign trade policies and exchange rate in the post-crisis era.Based on the data from 1994 to 2008,the analysis shows that RMB exchange rate is flexible in China export to the U.S.,while the U.S.import is irrelevant to RMB exchange rate.Therefore,Chinese government should resolve to abide the external pressure,hold RMB exchange rate stable,and promote trade,employment and economy.For the American government,the RMB exchange rate is not the root for the unfavorable balance,and the appreciation of RMB can only divert trade rather than relieve the unfavorable balance.Thus,the undue and radical pressure on the appreciation of RMB is not wise.