“98.6”闽北罕见持续性暴雨的环流特征和预报

The Circulation Characteristic and Forecast of a Continuous Rainstorm in the North of Fujian

分析指出，“９８．６”暴雨之所以超历史记录，是由于持续性暴雨环流特征值超历史记录造成；闽北特大洪灾是长江流域及江南特大洪灾的组成，往往同年发生；以“９８．６”暴雨预报成功为例，为今后预报大暴雨造成的特大洪灾提供预报思路。

The analysis results show that the continuous rainstorm circulation eigenvalue beyond hstorical record in June 1998. The heavy folld disaster in the north of Fujina is a component part of heavy flood disaster in the Yangtze River basin and the southern area of the Yangtze River, that usually occur in the same year. The example of successful prediction of a rainstorm in JUne 1998 offers forecast for a heavy flood disaster caused by heavy rainstorm.