基于GM(1,1)灰色模型的湖南省人口规模预测研究

Research on Hunan Population Prediction Based on GM(1,1) Model

人口增长、资源耗竭、环境污染问题是当今社会面临的重大问题,而人口问题是实现人口、资源、环境可持续发展的前提.人口规模是否合理,对一个地区未来的资源、环境、经济与社会可持续发展影响深远.针对人口预测中信息不充分的特点,运用GM(1,1)灰色增长模型对湖南省2009年～2020年的人口规模做出了科学预测,在分析湖南省人口发展所面临问题的基础上,尝试性地提出了对策,为湖南省在新的历史机遇期科学地制定相关社会经济发展战略与规划、实现人口与资源环境的可持续发展提供参考.

Population growth,resource depletion,environmental pollution is a major issue,while the population problem is a premise on the sustainable development of population,resources and environment.Whether population size is reasonable has an further impact on the resource,environmental,economic and social sustainable development.With consideration of the characteristics of insufficient information of population prediction,using GM（1,1） grey growth model,a scientific population prediction from 2009 to 2020 year was made.Based on the analyzing the problem of population development in Hunan Province,countermeasures were tentatively put forward.It aimed to give a reference to make relevant social-economic development strategy and plan,and achieve sustainable development between population,resources and environment in the new historical period.