区域斜坡不稳定空间预测

SPATIAL PREDICTION OF FAILURE PROBABILITY OF REGIONAL SLOPES USING ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY METHOD

将场地斜坡稳定随机模拟分析结果与区域斜坡空间不稳定性预测结合起来，基于层次分析建立了区域斜坡空间破坏概率的多层模糊稳定分析方法，实现了场地斜坡稳定非确定性模型评价结果与区域稳定性研究相结合，借助这一关系模型可以实现空间点评价向空间面评价的过渡．以川南经济开发区区域斜坡空间破坏概率预测为例进行了方法验证，结果显示这种方法可以克服区域斜坡不稳定性评价中的定量化困难，物理意义更加明确．

Combining the results of random simulation for single site slope stability with that of instability zoning of regional slopes by fuzzy and information value qualitative techniques, the author developes a multi_layer fuzzy system analysis method for determining space failure probability of regional slope instability. The new method is aimed at resulting assessment conveyance of slope stability from site landslide hazard to regional slope instability. The application of the methodology developed herein is also presented for a set of landslide surveys of sediment rocks in the South Sichuan of China. The results indicate that the method can solve these quantitative problems and clarify physical expression in the spatial prediction. Therefore this method is well suited to the assessment of regional slope instability.