中国省际城乡收入差距的收敛性及其非线性──基于动态面板模型和门限面板模型的研究

On the Convergence and Its Nonlinearity of China’s Provincial Urban-rural Income Inequality:Evidence from Dynamic Panel and Threshold Panel Models

运用动态面板模型和门限面板模型研究中国省域1985-2008年的城乡收入差距的收敛情况及其非线性。通过结合Barro和Sala-i-Martin(1992)、Evans和Karras(1996)两个经典收敛模型,利用泰尔指数衡量国内总体及各省的城乡收入差距,动态面板模型的GMM估计结果表明,虽然国内城乡收入差距大部分时间都在扩大,但其具有缩小趋势下的收敛性,并最终会缩小27%。门限面板模型研究发现,城乡收入差距的收敛具有非线性,低城乡收入差距会在扩大的趋势下收敛,而高城乡收入差距会在缩小趋势下收敛。

By making use of the dynamic panel model and threshold panel model, this paper studies the convergence and its nonlinearity of China＇s provincial urban-rural income gap during the period of 1985-2008. By combining the two classic convergence models of Barro and Sala-i-Martin （1992） and Evans and Karras （1996） and making use of Theil index to measure the urban-rural income gap of the whole country and every province, the GMM estimated results from the dynamic panel model show that although the urban-rural inequality is becoming wider and wider all the time, there does exist convergence along with the tendency of decreasing, and it will be reduced by 27% finally. By using the threshold panel model, this paper also finds that the convergence of the urban-rural income gap has a feature of nonlinearity; the low gap will converge at the tendency of enlarging, while the high gap will converge at the tendency of decreasing.