摘要
按照复利增长的逻辑,考虑公司的有限寿命,未来收益或价值的永续增长率一定是负的而不是正的,而负增长率又让人难以接受,本文将这种矛盾称为"ZZ悖论"。借助于Gordon模型,基于Moody的违约数据,围绕如何解释"正永续增长率"以及"负增长率"对于资产价值的重大影响,讨论了ZZ悖论的种种隐含意义,包括各信用等级公司的破产概率、期望寿命、负永续增长率及其对公司股票价值和贴现率的潜在影响等。
According to the logic of compound growth, the perpetual growth rate of the future return or value must be negative, rather than positive, when the finite life of a company is taken into account. However, this negative growth rate contradicts with common assumptions, this paper refers to it as ＂ZZ paradox＂ . By making use of the Gordon Model and based on Moody＇s data of default rates, this paper centers around how to interpret the significant impact of the positive perpetual growth rate and the negative growth rate on the asset value and discusses the implicit consequences of the ZZ paradox, including the bankruptcy probabilities, life expectancy, the negative growth rate of companies with different ratings, and their potential influence on corporate share value and discount rate.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期48-58,共11页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
