中国房地产市场财富效应研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

A Study of Wealth Effect of China’s Real Estate Market: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

通过基于2000-2009年第二季度的我国房地产销售额、城镇居民消费支出和收入有关季度数据,运用面板协整模型,对我国居民消费的财富效应进行实证研究表明,全国、东部、中部面板的房地产财富效应为正值,表现出对消费的促进作用,并发挥了理论预期中的积极的财富效应;西部面板的房地产财富效应为负,且不显著;个体省份中不少省份已经出现负的财富效应,既有发达的东部省份、中部省份,也有所有欠发达的西部省份。

Based on the related quarterly data of the sales volume of China＇s real estate and the consumption expenditure and income of urban residents from 2000 to the second quarter of 2009, this paper conducts an empirical study of the wealth effect of China＇s resident expenditure by means of the panel cointegration model. The result indicates that the wealth effect of the real estate in the whole country and the eastern and central panels is positive, showing a promoting function upon consumption and playing an active role of wealth effect as expected in theory; the theory is expected to exert a positive wealth effect; the real estate wealth effect of the western panel is negative, and not obvious; there appears negative wealth effect in some of the individual provinces, including the developed eastem and central provinces, and the developing western provinces as well.