我国行业周期非同步效应——基于微观视角

Non-synchronous Effect of Chinese Industry Cycle:A Micro Perspective

本文基于我国上市公司微观数据,同时考虑我国经济周期的非线性和协同变动特征,从而获取了传统经济周期研究中所无法获取的相关信息。研究结果表明：（1）我国行业周期表现出明显非同步效应,其中房地产等行业领先其他行业最先走出衰退;（2）利率政策在经济繁荣状态下较为有效,而信贷政策在经济衰退状态下较为有效。基于上述结果,我们认为我国经济已有复苏迹象,但尚不稳固,同时,目前转入定量宽松货币政策具有其合理性。

The paper studies Chinese business cycle from micro view based on financial data of listed companies. Some conclusions which can not be concluded from other study are as follows： firstly Chinese industry cycle shows significant Non-synchronous effect. Some sectors such as real estate and so on get out of recession earlier than others. Secondly, interest rate policy is comparatively effective in boom but credit policy is comparatively effective in depression. Combined with current economy situation, above conclusions show that it is a sign that depression is over and the quantitative easing monetary policy is reasonable.