摘要
针对当前水泥混凝土路面可靠度设计方法存在的问题,提出了工后可靠度的概念及其思想,以贝叶斯定理为基础推导了水泥混凝土路面工后可靠度的计算公式,并通过算例示范了工后可靠度的计算方法。工后可靠度对道路管理部门制定养护经费计划和养护对策有重要的意义。对于更有实用意义的路面管理系统的构建,进一步提出了动态可靠度的概念,以及基于贝叶斯网络的路面动态可靠度计算方法,对路面管理系统的开发具有参考意义。
Based on analysis of the defects of reliability design methods in the current design specifications for cement concrete pavement,the concept of post construction reliability （short for PCR） was presented and defined.The formulas for the calculation of PCR were deduced with Bayesian Method.A case study was illustrated on how to calculate PCR with the formulas.PCR is significant for highway management departments to make plans on maintenance.For the construction of a more significant highway management system,the concept of dynamic reliability was further presented and its calculation framework based on Bayesian Network was established.
出处
《工程力学》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第A01期205-209,共5页
Engineering Mechanics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50868003)
广西建筑工程检测与实验重点实验室开放基金项目(桂科能07109005-9)
关键词
公路工程
水泥混凝土路面
可靠度设计方法
工后可靠度
贝叶斯定理
贝叶斯网络
highway engineering
cement concrete pavement
reliability design method
post construction reliability
Bayesian method
Bayesian network
