金融风暴对中国入境旅游影响的研究

Assessing the Impact of Financial Tsunami on Tourism by TRAMO/SEATS Model

为最小化危机事件的负面影响,准确量化其影响从而选择恰当的危机处理方法十分关键。我国入境旅游政策短期内应该致力于提高产品质量和拓展美国和欧洲等国高质量的细分市场,稳定欧美市场的人均花费和提高来访人数,在危机和突发事件影响延续中实现客源市场结构的调整和置换。长期则应该把重点放在控制成本和质量优化上,等待危机事件缓和之后才能进行积极的市场宣传。同时由于入境旅游人数的下滑没有企稳的迹象,我国旅游市场营销战略的重点和相关政策应向国内旅游部分倾斜,尽快敦促旅游国民计划落实。在危机影响减弱之后加大对港澳台的促销力度促进港澳台市场回流。

Crisis management is hot topic for former research. Increasingly,research more focuses on the impact of unexpected crisis in tourism in- dustry. Apart from most related researches that use qualitative method,TRAMO/SEATS model has been adopted to evaluate the impact of crisis, which was widely accepted among economic and financial fields. Moreover,the impact of financial tsunami on tourism industry of China's Mainland has been revealed by means of TRAMO/SEATS model. The main findings are the total loss of tourism industry caused by financial tsunami which is around 3. 04 billions seemingly smaller than widely assumed in the public. Also,the methods are discussed for improving strength of tourism crisis management.