金融发展与安徽经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Financial Development and Economic Growth in Anhui Province

通过选取安徽省1978-2008年的经济数据进行实证分析,结果表明,金融发展与安徽省经济发展存在双向因果关系。长期看,安徽省经济的增长可以促进安徽省金融的发展,安徽省金融发展也带动了安徽省人均生产总值的提高,具有反作用;短期看,人均国内生产总值的增加对国内生产总值带动作用更大,而金融发展水平的提高也会推动国内生产总值提高。因此,今后安徽省在经济发展方面,应大力发展金融业;建立完善的法律制度;充分发挥安徽省的地理优势和能源优势;努力提高安徽省的人均收入,扩大就业机会和范围,扩大内需,增加贸易和储蓄,以此促进安徽省国内生产总值和金融业的协同发展。

The empirical analysis of economic data in Anhui Province from 1978 to 2008 shows that there exists bilateral causality between its financial and economic development. In a long run, its economic development will promote its financial development and its growth of gross product per capita; in a short rim, however, the growth of GDP per capita will promote increase of GNP more greatly, and the increase of financial development will push that of GNP. Therefore, in economic development, the province should develop financial industry, establish perfect legal system, take its geographical and energy advantages, improve its income per capita, increase opportunity and scale of employment, domestic demand, and trade and savings, and accordingly, promote coordinated development between GDP and financial industry in Anhui Province.