转型经济国家资本流动与银行稳定关系的实证研究--基于中东欧8国面板数据的分析

An Empirical Study on Relationship of Capital Flow and Bank Stability in Transitional Countries:Panel Data Analysis of 8 CEE Countries

文中利用中东欧8个国家1999-2008年的面板数据,通过固定效应面板模型,对资本流动和银行稳定的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示,外商直接投资对中东欧国家银行稳定的正向影响是最大的,其次是证券投资,而其他投资对这些国家的影响正在逐渐减弱。与之相反,短期资本流动对中东欧国家的银行体系带来的主要是负面冲击,大量热钱的抽逃是引致中东欧转型经济国家银行脆弱的根源所在。

Based on the data from 8 Central and Eastern European Countries during 1999-2008, this paper examines the real relationship of capital flow and bank stability empirically, relying on the panel data model of fixed effect. The result illustrates that the positive effect of FDI towards the bank stability of CEE eountries is the highest, followed by portfolio investment, while other investment has weaken gradually. On the contrary, short capital flow has brought negative attack to the bank stability of these countries, which is in accordance with the fact that the escape of enormous hot money is the origin of bank fragility of CEE transitional countries.