有利中国经济更好平衡

A Managed Float for Yuan

6月19日,中国人民银行发布消息,决定"进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,增强人民币汇率弹性"。这是继2005年之后,中国推进人民币汇率形成机制改革的又一重要步骤,其积极效果值得期待。央行新闻发言人强调,"人民币汇率不进行一次性重估调整,当前不存在大幅波动和变化的基础"。这次汇改重在坚持以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节。继续按照已公布的外汇市场汇率浮动区间,对人民币汇率浮动进行动态管理和调节,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定,促进国际收支基本平衡,维护宏观经济和金融市场的稳定。近年,中国主要经贸伙伴呈现明显的多元化态势,资本往来也呈现多样化和多区域特征。央行认为,"在此背景下,人民币汇率如果盯住单一货币变化,不适应贸易投资货币多元化的需要,也不能反映汇率的实际水平"。 2008年国际金融危机期间,中国适当收窄了人民币波动幅度以应对危机。2008年7月至此次汇改前,人民币兑美元汇率中间价一直在6.82-6.84的窄幅区间内波动。最近两个月来,人民币实际有效汇率连续三个月环比攀升。中国于此时宣布进一步推进汇改,其意义何在,又将给中国及其贸易伙伴带来哪些影响?本刊特邀国内外部分金融机构的经济学家,对此作出解析。

Chinas central bank announced on its website in mid-June that it will increase the yuan's flexibility. The statement rules out the possibility of a one-time, large scale appreciation. But the yuan might appreciate slightly against US dollar, once it starts to experience normal currency fluctuations within a managed span. It also indicates that China will focus more on a basket of currencies in determining the exchange rate. Overseas, this might reduce the political heat. At home, most economists see it as a positive step, containing rising inflation and assets bubble, increasing purchasing power of Chinese people, moving China towards exchange rate reform and rebalancing the nation's economic structure. Economists also brush aside worries that an appreciated yuan would hurt Chinas export and damage its manufacturing base.