政府财政收支对居民消费的挤出挤入效应

Crowd-in and Crowd-out Effect of Government Spending and Financing on Private Consumption

分析了1978~2008年我国29个省（市）政府消费性支出与居民消费的关系,研究了政府支出规模、税负水平以及债务融资对政府消费与居民消费关系的影响,以期评价财政政策在宏观需求管理中的有效性。经验研究结果表明,政府消费性支出挤入了居民消费,而税负和债务融资占用了居民可支配的消费资源,降低了政府消费性支出对居民消费的挤入效应,从而减弱了财政政策在刺激经济和扩大内需上的乘数效应。

This paper studies the relationship between government consumption and private consumption using the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 1978 to 2008, and then analyzes three main influence factors, such as government size, tax and debt financing, on the relationship between government consumption and private consumption. The result shows that the government consumption corwd-in private consumption, but tax and debt financing occupy resources of residents disposable consumption, thereby reduce the corwd-in effect and weaken the multiplier effect of fiscal policies.