b^t型增长曲线预测油田开发指标方法

A Method for Predicting Oilfield Development Indexes of A New Increase Curve b^t Mould

提出了一种预测油田开发指标的新型的增长曲线，推导了这种增长曲线的Qt～t、tm、Qtmax以及RPR的计算公式。用图形研究了这种增长曲线的Qt～t关系的变化特点。根据研究发现了一个重要的关系，即油田产量达到最大值Qtmax时对应的累积产量NP（Qtmax）与最大可采储量NRmax的比值恒等于，即，称为，型增长曲线预测油田开发指标的准数。提出了根据实际资料计算NRmax、b、a等参数的重复线性回归法。庆祖集油田的计算实例表明这种增长曲线实际应用的重大价值。

A new increase curve of Np = NRmax mould to predict oilfield development indexes has been proposed and formulas of production Qt vs time t, maximum preduction Qtmax, tm - time according Qtmax and RPR (reserve- production- ratio) of the increase curve have been derived. By using the drawing the characteristics of Qt vs t relationships of the increase curve have been studied. In terms of the researches an important relatdriships has been found: when preduction Qt reaches maximum value Qtmax, the proportionality of cumulative production Np (Qtmax) and maximum recoverable reserves NRmax identically equal to , i. e.,it is called criterion of the increase ctirve Np = NRmax mould to predict oilfield development indexes. The method of repeated linear regression for calculatiflg Nbo, b and a by using actual data have been proposed. An example for calculation of Qingzuji oilfield shows great useful value of the increase curve.