青藏高原1951—2006年气温距平序列的建立与分析

Construction and Analysis of Mean Air Temperature Anomaly Series for the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 1951-2006

依照气候距平法,基于"中国均一化历史气温数据集(1951—2004年)1.0版"与2005—2006年逐日平均气温资料,对青藏高原及其邻近区域123个测站的逐月平均气温网格化,进而以面积加权法建立高原1951—2006年逐月平均气温距平序列。最大限度地利用观测资料,着重探讨了利用参考站订正短序列气温资料气候标准值的方法。所建序列的奇异谱分析表明,青藏高原平均气温年际变化的近1/2可解释为非线性上升趋势,近1/5的变化可解释为白噪声。与同期北半球陆地区域相比,二者的年平均气温距平序列的趋势非常相近,高原并未显示变暖的超前性;高原序列中的噪声比率和强度却要大得多,对高原序列线性倾向率的估计有较大的影响。

Based on the China Homogenized Historical Temperature Dataset（1951-2004） Version 1.0 and the diurnal mean temperature data,the monthly mean temperature at 123 stations in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau（QXP） and its surrounding were gridded using the Climate Anomaly Method.Further,the series of the monthly temperature anomaly from 1951 to 2006 in the QXP were built by the area-weighted average method.In order to maximize the use of the observation data,the method using the data at nearby reference station to correct the short series of the climatic standard values on the air temperature data were discussed.The Singular Spectral Analysis（SSA） of the builted dataset indicates that nonlinear increasing trend is nearly 50% of the total variance of the annual mean air temperature in the QXP,and the white noise is almost 20% of the total variance.The anomaly series of the annual mean air temperature in the QXP is very close to that of the Northern Hemisphere at the same period and the warming in the QXP has no advance.Because the noise rate in the QXP is much greater than that of the Northern Hemisphere,which may have a significant influence on estimating the linear trend rate of the temperature series in the QXP.