摘要
根据中国西北近703年(1306—2008年)大旱年发生时间间隔的资料序列,通过正态性、独立性等统计检验,确定序列的性质。利用平稳独立随机过程理论建立概率预测模式,通过独立样本预测试验,并对未来中国西北大旱年发生概率预测做了研究。预计下次大旱年可能在2016年前后发生,2015年发生的概率为58%,2016年发生的概率为61%。
Based on the 703 year（1306_2008） severe drought data series in northwest China,this paper confirmed the sample properties of its normality,independency and stationary by statistical test,and established a probability model using the stationary and independent process theory to predict severe drought year in northwest China.Through the independent sample prediction test,the temporal distribution of severe drought year in northwest China can be analysed probabilistically,and the model shows that the next severe drought year in northwest China will happen around 2016 years,with occurrence probability 58% for 2015 years and 61% for 2016 years.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期786-793,共8页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
陕西省自然科学基金项目(2007D11)
陕西省科技攻关项目(2005K01-G19
2005K01-G24)共同资助
关键词
西北大旱年
旱年时间间隔序列
概率预测
平稳独立过程
Severe drought year in northwest China
Time interval sequence occurred sever dry years
Probability prediction
Stationary and independent process
