中国经济发展方式与人口红利关系辨析

A Research on Relationship between China’s Pattern of Economic Development and Demographic Dividend

近年来热烈讨论的人口红利,对我国来说更接近于一种"人口机会窗口"。它可以通过增加劳动力投入,提高储蓄率等渠道推动经济增长。但这种经济增长并非一定是现代经济增长。中国的实践证明,粗放式低层次地利用"人口机会窗口",走传统工业化道路已经遇到严峻挑战。印度自20世纪80年代起采取新的经济发展模式,积极培养与积累人力资本,发展高新技术产业,值得中国参考。应深层次充分挖掘人力资源优势,积累人力资本,走出一条依靠科技进步和劳动者素质提高的发展道路,真正分享人口红利。

Instead of taking full advantage of demographic opportunity window,China has been adopting a traditionally heavy chemical industrialization strategy over a long period.Such strategy faces a serious challenge right now.India’s experience of new industrialization since mid 1980s indicates that a big country can adopt a leaping development strategy which is led by accumulation of human capital and development of high new tech industry.Thus,demographic dividend can be really achieved.