摘要
本文基于1999年第一季度至2009年第二季度的我国房地产销售价格指数、居民消费支出和收入有关数据，运用动态分布滞后模型和可变系数的状态空间模型，研究表明，房地产的边际消费倾向为正值，表现出对消费的促进作用，并发挥了理论预期中的积极的财富效应。政府应从政策导向上保持房地产市场的持续、稳定、健康发展，一方面打击人为的房地产炒作，另一方面限制房价过快增长，防止泡沫的过度膨胀和破裂的风险。
This paper analyzes wealth effect based on the data of Household consumption expenditure and income, the Price Index of Real Estate Sales from Q1.1999 to Q2.2009 in China, and the use of dynamic distributed lag model and variable coefficients of state space model. The result shows that the positive MPC of the real estate can promote consumption and display wealth effect. Government policy guidance should keep the real estate market sustainable, steady and healthy in order to against housing speculation, curb the excessive growth of house prices and prevent over inflation and bubble bursting risk.
出处
《全球科技经济瞭望》
2010年第6期58-64,共7页
Global Science，Technology and Economy Outlook
关键词
房地产市场
财富效应
城市管理
地区经济
房地产管理
the Real Estate Market
Wealth Effect
City Management
Regional Economy
the Real Estate Management
