南疆地区近58年气温、降水变化特征分析

Analysis of temperature and precipitation of southern Xinjiang in last 58 years

近年来新疆气候尤其是南疆气候出现了一些引人注目的变化。使用南疆地区吐鲁番、库车、南疆、和田、且末、若羌、哈密7个气象站1951-2008年的月平均气温和降水资料,采用经验函数拟合法和小波分析法,对南疆地区的月平均气温和降水的变化趋势和周期变化进行了分析研究。研究表明:趋势分析中,南疆地区平均温度年际变化呈现上升趋势,呈现冬暖夏凉的现象;平均降水量年际变化呈增加趋势,表明南疆地区气候已呈现出较明显的变暖变湿趋势。异常分析中,年平均温度偏暖期主要集中在20世纪90年代后期,偏冷期集中在20世纪60、70年代;降水量异常主要表现为降水异常偏多、显著偏多、偏多、偏少的情况。周期分析中,月平均温度距平存在99.06月(8.26年)的主周期,月平均降水量距平存在58.90月(4.91年)的主周期,根据主周期的小波系数实部,预测未来2年南疆地区的温度仍将偏高,降水量仍将偏多。

The climate have changed greatly in Xinjiang especially in southern region recently.With the experience function fitting and wavelet transform analytic methods, 7 weather stations were chosen and the temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2008 were used to analyze their variation tendency and period variation.The conclusion was expressed as follow：In trend analysis,the annual temperature and precipitation was increased,and winter temperature is getting warmer and summer colder,which indicating that the climate in southern Xinjiang have shown a more wet and warm trend change.In anomaly analysis,the warm period of annual temperature focused mainly on the late 90＇s,cool period on the 60＇s and 70＇s in the 20th century;the precipitation anomalies was mainly on the high,obvious high,and low side.In period analysis,the significant time-scale of the monthly temperature variation is 99.06-month or 8.26-year,the monthly precipitation is 58.90-month or 4.91-year.According to the real part of wavelet coefficient of main period,the mean temperature and precipitation will be on the high side in the next two years.