出口贸易方式与广东经济增长关系的实证分析

On The Relationship Between Type of Export and Economic Growth in Guangdong Province

利用多种时间序列计量方法,对广东加工贸易出口、一般贸易出口和经济增长的关系进行研究。结果表明:加工贸易出口、一般贸易出口与广东经济增长间存在长期均衡关系;加工贸易出口增长是广东经济增长的格兰杰原因,而广东经济增长不是加工贸易出口增加的格兰杰原因;一般贸易出口和广东经济增长间没有格兰杰因果关系,一般贸易出口增长对广东经济增长没有起到很好促进作用。广东应坚持发展加工贸易,同时对传统劳动密集型加工贸易产业的发展实施转型升级,并提高一般贸易出口商品的技术含量,优化一般贸易出口商品结构。

This paper employs quite a few econometric techniques to examine the relationship among normal exports, processing exports and gross national products （GDP）. The result shows that there exists a long-term equilibrium among normal experts, processing exports and gross national products （GDP）. Processing exports is the Granger cause of GDP but GDP is not the Granger cause of processing exports. However,there is no causality relationship between normal exports and GDP. Guangdong should insist on developing pro- cessing trade, restructure and upgrade traditional labor-intensive processing trade industry ,improve the technological content of exports of general trade, and optimize export structure of normal exports.