发电系统的可靠性改进区间评估

An Improved Interval Approach for Generating System Reliability

考虑发电系统可靠性原始数据不确定性,本文首先采用数学理论对原始数据进行修正,得到以区间数值表示的修正数据.其次利用概率论和区间运算,对发电系统可靠性进行区间评估,此区间评估方法,更能体现系统可靠性的真实性.最后采用一个三机的算例对所提方法的正确性进行了验证,并与文献对比分析,所求的可靠性区间指标范围减少,可靠性强,计算更快速简便.

Considering uncertainties of original data in the reliability of generation system,firstly using the mathematical theory amended the original data so that it can reduce the uncertainties of the data.Then using probability theory and interval arithmetic assessed the range of generation system reliability,the range of assessment methods can better reflect the authenticity of the reliability of the system.Finally,a three-machine example was given and the correctness of this method is verified,compared with literatures [1],reliability interval indices of generation system is reducing and calculated more quickly and easily.It illustrated the effectiveness of the method.